Do you remember all those family holidays of your youth that went perfectly well? No? What about the disasters - like when it rained for a week in France and you all got bitten by mosquitos, or when you rolled the Land Rover on black-ice in Ireland and it was so cold that the pipes in the youth hostel froze and you all had to brush your teeth in beer? You remember those kind of holidays, don't you? Sometimes it's best when things don't go exactly according to plan.
Such it was when one of my speakers at a recent conference dropped out at the last minute. I had to write and present a paper in his place, given less than 24 hours notice. However, I really enjoyed putting it together, the paper was well-received and it has led to a lot of useful discussion.
The paper I came up with was on the megatrends that will shape not only the construction industry but also human societies in the next 50 years. The seven factors were demographic trends (showing how China's workforce of single-children, with a sharply reducing workforce being born, will lead to one of the 'oldest' populations on the planet; Russian and Italian depopulation due to low birth rates; America's continuing strong growth due to immigration and relatively high birth rates; Nigeria, Ethiopia and Indonesia's strong population growth); urbanisation (with 50% of humankind living in cities in 2000 and 70-75% of humanity due to live in cities by 2050); the growth of new super-powers (Nigeria? Brazil? Mexico?); the possibility of further climate change with attendant disasters (and also the possibility that we shall shortly see the discrediting of the primarily anthropogenic climate change theory/belief system); ever-increasing energy costs (but also the possibility that energy costs will reduce dramatically as shale gas and oil sand reserves are tapped and oil costs reduce due to a semi-permanent low-growth recession); and the influence of Rumsfeldian known-unknowns which, in my presentation, I suggested might include - in no particular order - Eurozone collapse, US bankruptcy, a Chinese hard landing or regime change, a global SARS/H1N1/bird-swine flu/ebola/West Nile Fever (etc) pandemic, Arab-Spring-like events, accidents (nuclear, biological, chemical etc), catastrophes (weather, earthquake, tsunami, etc), 9-11 type events or global thermonuclear war; and Rumsfeldian unknown-unknowns like the eruption of an unexpected super-volcano or an alien invasion (unlikely, I know, but not impossible and with large consequences - the classic 'black swan' event).
I think that the safest forecast for the next 50 years is as follows: By 2050, humanity will increasingly live in wallboard-rich, high-rise, cement-intensive mega-cities. Economic power will have shifted towards Asia and to Africa. Many countries will be struggling to cope with ageing populations. We might be in the midst of a climate change disaster. Energy costs will probably dominate all business decisions. Sustainability and recyclability will be of paramount importance. Gypsum (and insulation) is well-placed to benefit from these trends. Whatever else you should expect in the next 50 years, you should expect the unexpected.
Olympic dreams
As I write, the Olympic Games in London are only a few days away: tonight I will go to a dress rehearsal for the opening ceremony that by the time you read this you will most likely already have seen. Here in the UK, we are starting to get really rather excited by this amazing spectacle that is unfolding right on our doorstep. It has taken a long journey for us to get here.
You see, the essential approach of the British population to something like this is a kind of bemused indifference - an incredulity that anyone should want to site the Games here - of all places. There will certainly be many in the population who are already enthusiastic, but very many 'Brits' have a default setting of mopey cynicicm. For many Brits, if they're not moaning, they're not breathing. If it's not the cost, then it's the transport. If it's not the transport, then it will be the weather, food, corporate sponsorship, how we're doing and the million other things that can possibly be complained about.
However, all this moaning is but a front. Deep down, the British are a very energetic and enthusiastic nation: we like to have a party and to let our hair down (or at least we do if we have any hair). I expect that you will see a lot of smiley, happy people during the Games, particularly if the suns shines (and despite it if it really rains, since, after all, we're used to it).
I'm also expecting to see some weird, idiosyncratic and particularly British things during the Olympics - stuff that we will enjoy and that we don't expect anyone else to understand. Above all, I'm hoping that the Games is remembered for friendliness and as a fair and clean competition. Good luck to all... let the Games begin!
