The British Prime Minister David Cameron has returned from Brussels to metaphorically declare that he has done a deal with the continental powers, echoing Neville Chamberlain’s infamous ‘I hold in my hand a piece of paper,’ speech after meeting Mr Hitler in 1938. In his turn, Mr Cameron claims to have wrested important concessions from the current rulers of Europe. The difference between 1938-9 and now being that the deal will be put to the test of the referendum ballot box instead of by being tested by opposing armies. The British people, including the restive Scots (themselves arch-Europeans and sometimes seemingly half-French), will now vote on 23 June on whether to remain in the EU or to leave.
I will not be at all surprised if what the Germans call the ‘Inselaffen,’ the ‘island apes’ of Britain, decide to go their own way and vote to leave the EU. The over-riding British characteristic, I would say (and I’m not the first to say it), is an inherent and deep-seated ‘bolshiness’ or pugnacious objectionability, with an undertone (beneath the outward politeness) of powerful rage. If he asks himself any rational questions, the ‘man in the street’ will probably ask himself two main questions: ‘If I vote to leave or to stay, will I be richer or poorer?’ and ‘What would life be like outside the EU?’ The UK’s net contribution to the EU is around £8.5bn each year, but the Confederation of British Industry, a trade association, estimates that the direct economic advantages are close to £80bn in return. However, according to the prognostications of a variety of economic pundits, if the UK leaves the EU, British citizens will either be a little bit better off, a little bit worse off or just about the same as before. So, they obviously don’t know, one way or the other. (Bringing to mind the old adage that ‘If you laid all the economists in the world end-to-end, they still wouldn’t reach a conclusion.’)
On the question of what life might be like outside of the EU, (we obviously know what life is like inside the EU), we have a few models to compare with. Neither Norway nor Switzerland are in the EU, but to be able to take full advantage of trade links with EU states, effectively they have to comply with all relevant EU standards and laws. That isn’t necessarily a big problem, since the UK already does this. However, like Norway and Switzerland, a UK outside the EU would have to comply with the standards and laws while having no say over them. On the other hand, states and companies wanting to trade with Britain would need to comply with UK laws and standards as well, so it works both ways. In the same manner, part of the antagonism towards the EU is undoubtedly the large number of immigrants that have come to the country in the last 10-15 years, perhaps up to eight million according to some sources (although many have subsequently gone home again). There is an argument to say that each of these people has contributed to the economy, paying taxes, buying goods and services and doing jobs that British people don’t want to do (or are not skilled enough to do). Immigrants have certainly driven down the price of some services (a kitchen-fitter friend of mine is often told that to get the quoted-for building project, he has to give a ‘Polish price.’) The problem with pulling up the British drawbridge to stop people coming in is that there is another drawbridge on the other side of the English Channel - and that the continentals could easily pull theirs up in retaliation. British people like to go on holiday, buy property and do business on the continent. Not being able to do so quite as easily would hurt (but it would hurt both sides, too). Approximately the same number of British people now live and work ‘on the continent’ as people from the rest of the EU now live and work in the UK. So, it’s complicated, and the question of ‘should we leave or remain,’ does not have a simple answer. If the answer does come back as a ‘Leave,’ then we can expect to see the biggest political horse-trading fair for the foreseeable future between all those politicians (and lawyers).
The reason that I have dwelled so much on this subject this month, on what seems to be such a parochial UK-centric subject, is not because it is Britain and that I live there, but because of the fact that any state in Europe can ask exactly the same question. I wonder what the world might be like in five years’ time if the same question was asked of the populations of France, Germany, Italy, the Netherlands and Sweden (the other current top net contributors to the EU budget) and they all said ‘Leave.’ There would not be much left of the EU.
Despite the ambivalence of many people in the UK towards the EU, and the fact that many on the continent feel that the British are a bunch of whingers who always want special treatment (undoubtedly there is a hint of truth in this), there was a cheering show of hands at the recent Global CemFuels Conference in Prague (to be reviewed in our next issue). When asked if they would like the UK to stay in the EU, there was unanimous agreement from the assembled delegates from 30 countries: We are stronger together.
