In March 2020, the Global Gypsum team went home from its ‘last normal day’ at the office. Shortly afterwards the UK, like much of the world, entered its first lockdown. While the picture was bleak, we were sure that the ‘novel coronavirus’ was a temporary blip during an otherwise normal year. ‘See you at Christmas’ we joked, knowing that it wouldn’t take that long.
Within a couple of weeks, those initial expectations were being crushed under the weight of a new reality. In ‘Phase 1’ of the pandemic, the world was dealing with an unmanageable virus and had to clamp down hard on normal life to manage it. The virus definitely had the
upper hand.
After the initial success of the early lockdowns, the world re-emerged into the (northern hemisphere) summer of 2020, entering ‘Phase 2.’ We now understood the virus far better and could treat it more effectively. Many countries now had systems to track and deal with outbreaks, with the potential for a ‘game changing’ vaccine by the end of the year. We had started to fight back.
However, the pandemic has been a collective exercise in expectation management. After the relative success of mid 2020, cases began to rise again in the second half of that year due to high levels of social mixing and low levels of immunity. Then, the Delta variant emerged in the India in November 2020. Not only was this more transmissable than previous variants, it was more deadly too. The measures that had contained the virus were no longer enough. Many countries re-entered lockdown in early 2021 as Delta grew in prominence. One step forward, two steps back.
Now, after a year of learning to deal with Delta, it is the Omicron variant, first detected in South Africa in November 2021, that is ascendent. Like Delta, it has grown thanks to mutations that allow it to spread rapidly... very rapidly. Upon hearing about Omicron in late November 2021, I was struck by the same sense of dread as when Delta appeared on the scene a year earlier. It seemed that Omicron could well be the variant from hell.
But a few weeks later it appears that we may - and I want to attach a massive neon-lit ‘Caution’ sign to this - have entered ‘Phase 3,’ with humans finally taking the upper hand. It is possible that Omicron might just be doing us all a favour. Yes, the new variant is extremely adept at entering human nasal passages. However, it has lost much of its ability to do major damage elsewhere in the body. Death rates are much lower than with Delta, although this is also partly due to immunity through vaccination. Ultimately, lower mortality is natural as viruses evolve. Killing the host is counter-productive, as doing so also kills the virus itself. It is more effective for the virus to let the host live and spread it to others. Thankfully this is the preferred option of most hosts too.
This is not to downplay the risks that Omicron poses. It is still Covid-19 and, as such, has radically different and unpredictable health outcomes for different individuals. Many will still get seriously ill and die, more so if millions are infected. Not going down the lockdown route this time around could be a costly mistake that once again allows health services to be overwhelmed. Or it could be a genius masterstroke.
Ultimately, it may be that Phase 4 sees Omicron - or an even more transmissable successor - eventually ‘rip through’ the entire global population. Coupled to ongoing vaccination efforts, this will bring immunity to the majority of people, hopefully leading to a rapid and sustained decline in cases.
We are not there yet. In 2022, and possibly beyond, there may be further knock-backs, indeed they should be expected. We may yet encounter an ‘Omicron-plus’ variant that forces us to start with Phase 1 all over again. However, if we play our cards right, we will continue to turn the tide on Covid-19.
Given that billions of people around the world still await their first dose of a Covid-19 vaccine, it would seem that spring 2022 is a very good time to vaccinate the world in earnest. This will reduce not only the chances of severe illness on an individual level, but reduce the chances of Omicron undergoing further changes. No one is safe until everyone is safe, as Dr Tedros Ghebreyesus, the Director General of the WHO, has repeatedly said.
However the pandemic develops from here, it remains delicately balanced. As this new year develops, Global Gypsum looks forward to meeting all of its contacts - old and new - at the Global Gypsum Conference and Global Insulation Conference later in 2022. By this point, there will have been more than three full years since our last conferences on these topics. So, let’s all hope, fingers crossed, that 2022 is the year that we can finally get back together. I’m sure there are many exciting developments to discuss!
