The Covid-19 pandemic is unprecedented in modern times, both in terms of its effects on individual health and the global economy. While SARS, MERS, Swine Flu and Ebola outbreaks have been devastating for those affected, there has not been a full-blown pandemic since 1918 - 1919.1 Thankfully, we are extremely unlikely to reach the estimated 50 million deaths seen due to that pandemic during the current outbreak, although the situation remains very bad indeed.
There are many reasons why we are better prepared for a pandemic in 2020 rather than in 1918 and many lives have been saved as a result. There has been a Century of medical breakthroughs and, on the organisational side, we have the WHO and the UN. The EU has marshalled over US$10bn of donations2 to help fund the research needed to beat the pandemic.
However, more has happened in the past 20 - 30 years than in the prior 70-80 years that enables our society to continue to function in the face of the pandemic, albeit at a reduced capacity. Firstly, modern modelling and behavioural research continues to inform our knowledge of how to not catch Covid-19, adding to previous advice on social distancing and the need to close schools and workplaces, first seen in 1918 - 19.
Once someone is infected however, modern healthcare systems have, broadly speaking, not been overloaded through careful planning and allocation of resources. Antigen (do I have it now?) tests have been developed at incredible pace. Gene sequencing allowed us to study the virus to screen drugs that may limit its spread and/or effects. This recently led to the approval of the anti-Ebola drug Remdesivir being approved for extreme Covid-19 cases in the UK.3 While the world still awaits a reliable antibody (did I have it before?) test for Covid-19, it is generally accepted as being a matter of time. Having been warned in early 2020 that a vaccine may be 12 - 18 months away, we are now told of candidates that could be available in September.4
To illustrate the pace of change, one study will sequence the DNA of 35,000 Covid-19 patients to find out why some are unsymptomatic and others have multiple organ failure.5 For comparison, the original Human Genome Project lasted from 1990 to 2003.6 The above approach would have been a non-starter just a few years ago. In our time-sensitive efforts to learn more about the virus, rapid and (relatively) inexpensive research has already saved many lives.
Also in the medical sphere, diverse manufacturers have been able to design and supply medical ventilators in weeks rather than years. They used computer-aided design and cheap, ubiquitous broadband. The latter has enabled many office workers to continue in their jobs in a way that would have been impossible prior to 2010. This has prevented economic damage being even more severe. Meetings have migrated online and wallboard and insulation plants have operated with skeleton staff. Indeed, remote connections now allow equipment suppliers to commission systems from off-site locations.
The internet has also been crucial to limiting transmission, and hence deaths, by providing social outlets. After a few weeks of lockdown, everyone misses their friends and family, even with social networking and video calls. Imagine the temptation to visit them in the pre-smartphone world! This would likely have led to lower lockdown compliance and problems with enforcement. Mental health has also taken a knock during lockdown. We should be grateful that discussing it is no longer taboo in many countries.
Modern connectivity has also ensured that supply chains have broadly avoided major disruption, including in the gypsum and insulation sectors. After an initial ‘wobble’ brought on mainly by panic buying, deliveries have reached supermarkets and pharmacies as planned, while online orders zoom around the streets.
Even when people have to venture out of the house, many can walk through an automatic door and pay contactlessly, in many cases not even coming face to face with a cashier at all. While we shop and exercise, our anonymised smartphone tracking provides a proxy for individual movement that feeds directly into governments’ calculations of the crucial virus reproduction (R) rate and, hence, their anti-virus measures. Phone Apps could yet help us navigate back to normality.
So, while ‘Lockdown 2020’ and its aftermath continue to have very detrimental effects on so many aspects of our lives, it will not be as long, fewer people will die and the economic fall out will not be as severe, as in a hypothetical ‘Lockdown 1990.’ Thankfully we are faced with Covid-19, rather than ‘Covid-89.’
1. https://www.cdc.gov/flu/pandemic-resources/1918-pandemic-h1n1.html1918-pandemic-h1n1.html
2. https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-52525387
3. https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-52805828
4. https://www.telegraph.co.uk/global-health/science-and-disease/vaccine-news-covid-19-coronavirus-us-uk-trials/
5. https://www.genomicsengland.co.uk/genomics-england-genomicc-nhs-covid-19/
6. https://www.genome.gov/human-genome-project
